Emerging research points out how much scientists have yet to learn about human-caused climate change — and raises the possibility that they, along with policymakers, are underestimating some of the risks lurking ahead.Why it matters: The studies and media comments from scientists illustrate that the Earth’s climate system — made up of the oceans, land and atmosphere — may no longer be behaving as it used to. Driving the news: One recent study found emerging “hot spots” where heat waves are far outpacing global temperature trends.These places are defying predictions and can be found on each continent except Antarctica.Because of quirks of the jet stream and other reasons, the regional hot spots are seeing extreme heat events that have killed tens of thousands of people in recent years. Those events also have primed the environment for devastating wildfires and harmed crops. The study, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, focuses on a newly identified known-unknown in climate science. What they’re saying: “This is about extreme trends that are the outcome of physical interactions we might not completely understand,” said lead author Kai Kornhuber, an adjunct scientist at the Columbia Climate School and a researcher in Austria. “These regions become temporary hothouses,” he said in a statement.Zoom in: Kornhuber and his colleagues produced the first global map of these hothouse regions, showing how they emerged from records of heat waves stretching back to 1958. Threat level: The study found extreme heat waves have become more common in about the past five years, particularly in parts of Asia, the Arabian peninsula, eastern Australia, Canada’s far northern regions, northern Greenland and parts of Siberia. Other researchers are trying to account for the record global heat seen this year, which will eclipse 2023 as the hottest year on record. Writing on the Substack “The Climate Brink,” climate scientist Zeke Hausfather shows that global average surface temperatures during the run-up to, during and post-period of the 2023-2024 El Niño event have departed from previous El Niño events.Such climate events, which feature unusually hot ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, tend to elevate global average temperatures. However, the past few years — with two consecutive years of record-breaking global temperatures — have been exceptional. “Even looking at the longer record, the evolution of global surface temperatures both before and after the El Niño is unprecedented,” Hausfather wrote last week.Read more
A fisherman arrives at a beach full of plastics in Indonesia on May 13. Photo: Suryanto Suryanto/Anadolu via Getty Images
Global negotiations to produce a plastics treaty to reduce waste ended at an impasse in Busan, South Korea yesterday, soon after grueling climate talks culminated in a fragile agreement in Azerbaijan a week ago. Why it matters: The world is awash in plastic waste, and plastics are a multibillion-dollar industry. Many oil companies view plastics production as vital to their bottom lines. Zoom in: The talks — which under UN rules required consensus to adopt an agreement — deadlocked with major plastic-producing countries balking at committing to plastics production curbs. Representatives of 67 countries, including the European Union, Australia and the U.K. had called for a binding treaty to combat plastic pollution with enforcement mechanisms. One major sticking point was whether to include a mandatory limit on the global supply of plastics. There’s connective tissue between human-caused climate change and plastics pollution. Plastics are typically made from fossil fuels, which can lead to emissions of planet-warming greenhouse gases. Between the lines: In recent years, there has been a concerted effort to promote recycling plastics, though a tiny minority of plastics produced and used are currently recycled. What’s next: Negotiators told the media they plan to hold additional talks on a plastics treaty sometime in 2025.
A NYT op-ed written by meteorologist Ryan Maue, a former top NOAA official during the first Trump administration, argues in favor of strengthening the agency’s weather and climate forecasting capabilities. Why it matters: NOAA is a public safety-focused agency, along with its role in researching climate, the oceans and fisheries. Making big changes to the agency could affect how Americans receive their severe weather warnings.Maue’s op-ed amounts to a high-profile pushback at any attemptsby Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to slash the agency’s funding.Zoom in: Project 2025, an initiative and report backed by the Heritage Foundation, calls for NOAA to be broken up. The report criticized the agency, calling it “one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry.” Maue served as NOAA’s chief scientist near the end of President-elect Trump’s first term, and he argues that NOAA should receive more financial support, not less. By the numbers: NOAA’s weather forecasts were estimated to have provided $41 billion in economic benefits to U.S. households in 2016, a figure which is very likely higher today. What they’re saying: “With the rising costs of and vulnerability to extreme weather in a changing climate for the United States, dismantling or defunding NOAA would be a catastrophic error,” Maue said. What we’re watching: If the op-ed proves to be an audition for a role in running NOAA.
Plastics treaty talks come up short
On my screen: NOAA’s fate under Trump
